Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 48.9%

TOR: 51.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.26

TOR: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.97
1	TOR	15	0	0.74
2	DET	17	3	1.61
2	TOR	21	0	1.24
3	DET	10	3	2.06
3	TOR	8	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1