Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WPG: 54.9%

MTL: 45.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.26

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	26	2	92.9%	2.63	1	0.63
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	23	4	85.2%	3.33	3	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	WPG
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	13	2	1.35
1	MTL	13	0	0.59
2	WPG	11	0	0.96
2	MTL	12	0	0.78
3	WPG	14	1	1.01
3	MTL	15	1	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0