St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

DAL: 67.1%

STL: 32.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.70

STL: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	16	15	1	93.8%	2.43	2	1.43
STL	Jordan Binnington	37	35	2	94.6%	4.00	3	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs STL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	DAL 0 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	0.97
1	STL	12	0	1.32
2	DAL	21	2	1.94
2	STL	6	0	0.17
3	DAL	18	0	0.75
3	STL	8	2	0.85
4	DAL	3	0	0.34
4	STL	1	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6