Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

SEA: 38.0%

TBL: 62.0%

Expected Goals

SEA: 2.82

TBL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	31	26	5	83.9%	3.85	4	-1.15
TBL	Jonas Johansson	22	21	1	95.5%	2.91	4	1.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SEA at home vs TBL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	13	1	0.85
1	TBL	13	1	0.80
2	SEA	12	3	1.63
2	TBL	22	2	1.42
3	SEA	10	0	0.43
3	TBL	13	1	1.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1