New York Islanders at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2024-12-15 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 41.5%

NYI: 58.5%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.80

NYI: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	33	30	3	90.9%	2.96	1	-0.04
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	18	5	78.3%	2.97	4	-2.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	NYI 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	NYI
2025-12-30	CHI 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2024-12-15	CHI 5 - 3 NYI	CHI	NYI
2024-12-12	NYI 5 - 4 CHI	NYI	NYI
2024-04-02	NYI 2 - 1 CHI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	0	0.86
1	NYI	14	0	0.96
2	CHI	11	2	1.17
2	NYI	20	0	0.75
3	CHI	7	2	0.95
3	NYI	17	1	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6