Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-12-15 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 49.2%
BUF: 50.8%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.29
BUF: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | TOR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.873 | 0.904 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | BUF 3 - 2 TOR | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4 - 7 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4 - 3 BUF | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | BUF 5 - 3 TOR | BUF | TOR |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:03 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 02:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 15:45 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 11:20 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 12:41 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 13:51 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:48 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.3 - 2.8
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