Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TOR: 55.3%

BUF: 44.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.17

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	0	1.47
1	BUF	20	0	1.04
2	TOR	16	0	1.14
2	BUF	17	0	0.80
3	TOR	26	4	2.62
3	BUF	9	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0