Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2024-12-16 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 31.8%

COL: 68.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.57

COL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	31	30	1	96.8%	2.93	5	1.93
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	22	3	88.0%	3.47	3	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs COL: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-01	COL 6 - 8 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-12-02	COL 3 - 1 VAN	COL	COL
2025-11-09	VAN 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-10	COL 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	COL
2025-02-04	VAN 3 - 0 COL	VAN	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	17	1	1.47
1	COL	6	0	0.21
2	VAN	15	0	1.09
2	COL	17	2	1.21
3	VAN	8	2	0.91
3	COL	16	3	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3