Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 48.3%

BUF: 51.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.87

BUF: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	21	20	1	95.2%	2.60	2	1.60
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	27	21	6	77.8%	3.00	2	-3.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • MTL at home vs BUF: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	1	1.25
1	BUF	7	1	0.66
2	MTL	13	1	1.31
2	BUF	17	0	1.09
3	MTL	8	0	0.44
3	BUF	12	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0