Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TBL: 66.2%

CBJ: 33.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.09

CBJ: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	29	3	90.6%	2.61	0	-0.39
CBJ	Jet Greaves	33	28	5	84.8%	4.28	2	-0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.39
1	CBJ	11	0	0.50
2	TBL	18	0	1.59
2	CBJ	12	0	0.80
3	TBL	10	1	1.31
3	CBJ	19	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 4.1 - 3.0