Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-18 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 39.6%

PHI: 60.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.29

PHI: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.47
1	PHI	5	0	0.44
2	DET	12	0	1.00
2	PHI	10	0	0.61
3	DET	7	2	1.33
3	PHI	18	0	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2