Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 50.8%

TOR: 49.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.27

TOR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	05:14	DAL	Goal
1	06:13	DAL	Goal
2	00:22	DAL	Goal
2	05:15	DAL	Goal
2	05:31	TOR	Goal
2	11:01	TOR	Goal
3	17:44	TOR	Goal
3	18:17	TOR	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8