Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-12-19 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

SJS: 32.5%

COL: 67.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.40

COL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	31	27	4	87.1%	3.56	2	-0.44
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	34	32	2	94.1%	2.92	1	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.47
1	COL	20	0	1.09
2	SJS	17	1	1.31
2	COL	13	1	0.88
3	SJS	21	0	1.13
3	COL	14	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.4 - 3.3