Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-20 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 58.7%
TOR: 41.3%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.28
TOR: 3.97
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 57%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.912 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4 - 7 BUF | BUF | TOR |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4 - 3 BUF | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | BUF 5 - 3 TOR | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0 - 4 TOR | TOR | BUF |
| 2024-12-20 | BUF 3 - 6 TOR | TOR | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:05 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 01:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 15:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 10:47 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:22 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:40 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:56 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 7.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 4.0