Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-20 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 55.6%
TOR: 44.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.26
TOR: 3.32
Total Goals
Median: 7.5
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 63%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.904 | 0.873 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | BUF 3 - 2 TOR | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4 - 7 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4 - 3 BUF | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | BUF 5 - 3 TOR | BUF | TOR |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 06:05 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 01:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:22 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 10:47 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 15:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:40 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.3
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