Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-20 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 52.0%

TOR: 48.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.37

TOR: 3.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.68
1	TOR	13	0	0.76
2	BUF	14	0	0.82
2	TOR	15	0	1.17
3	BUF	9	0	0.46
3	TOR	14	4	2.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.8