Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-20 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 61.4%

TOR: 38.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.18

TOR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	23	6	79.3%	4.66	4	-1.34
TOR	Matt Murray	27	24	3	88.9%	1.95	0	-1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.68
1	TOR	13	0	0.76
2	BUF	14	0	0.82
2	TOR	15	0	1.17
3	BUF	9	0	0.46
3	TOR	14	4	2.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1