Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-20 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

DET: 49.5%

MTL: 50.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.54

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	33	29	4	87.9%	3.05	2	-0.95
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	28	25	3	89.3%	3.00	1	-0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DET at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	DET
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	DET
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	DET
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	1.07
1	MTL	20	1	1.26
2	DET	9	0	0.62
2	MTL	17	0	0.87
3	DET	17	1	1.30
3	MTL	14	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0