Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-12-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 38.2%

CAR: 61.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.94

CAR: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	25	24	1	96.0%	3.20	1	2.20
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	22	19	3	86.4%	2.75	3	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	0.80
1	CAR	10	0	0.37
2	WSH	9	0	0.59
2	CAR	21	1	1.51
3	WSH	10	2	1.35
3	CAR	18	0	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0