Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 6 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

CGY: 66.7%

CHI: 33.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.20

CHI: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	24	4	85.7%	3.26	3	-0.74
CHI	Petr Mrazek	30	24	6	80.0%	3.71	2	-2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs CHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	1.28
1	CHI	11	0	0.70
2	CGY	13	0	0.81
2	CHI	11	0	0.56
3	CGY	8	2	1.62
3	CHI	12	3	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 6 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6