Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

BOS: 57.3%

BUF: 42.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.54

BUF: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	20	19	1	95.0%	1.75	0	0.75
BUF	James Reimer	19	16	3	84.2%	2.28	2	-0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	10	1	0.77
1	BUF	15	0	0.73
2	BOS	9	0	0.27
2	BUF	14	0	0.64
3	BOS	11	1	1.23
3	BUF	9	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2