New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 38.2%

NYI: 61.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.93

NYI: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	0	0.34
1	NYI	14	0	1.12
2	TOR	12	2	1.02
2	NYI	20	0	0.87
3	TOR	20	2	1.65
3	NYI	19	2	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5