Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

MTL: 57.8%

DET: 42.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.32

DET: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	21	20	1	95.2%	2.40	0	1.40
DET	Alex Lyon	24	19	5	79.2%	2.51	0	-2.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • MTL at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	DET
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	DET
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	DET
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MTL	16	1.11
1	DET	12	0.83
2	MTL	11	0.73
2	DET	15	0.87
3	MTL	11	0.67
3	DET	10	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8