Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

VAN: 46.8%

OTT: 53.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.22

OTT: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 33%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	22	17	5	77.3%	3.06	5	-1.94
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	25	21	4	84.0%	2.69	1	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VAN at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	VAN 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-13	OTT 2 - 1 VAN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-21	VAN 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-23	OTT 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	OTT
2024-01-02	VAN 6 - 3 OTT	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	1	0.98
1	OTT	17	3	1.70
2	VAN	14	0	0.91
2	OTT	13	2	1.00
3	VAN	16	0	0.80
3	OTT	9	0	0.30
4	VAN	0	0	0.00
4	OTT	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5