Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 53.8%

FLA: 46.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.45

FLA: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	1.07
1	FLA	14	0	0.46
2	TBL	5	0	0.33
2	FLA	15	0	1.02
3	TBL	11	1	0.55
3	FLA	10	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0