Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-12-22 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Win Probability

WSH: 56.5%

LAK: 43.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.09

LAK: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	25	1	96.2%	1.68	0	0.68
LAK	David Rittich	21	18	3	85.7%	2.02	1	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • WSH at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-02	LAK 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	LAK
2025-11-17	WSH 2 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2025-03-13	LAK 3 - 0 WSH	LAK	LAK
2024-12-22	WSH 3 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2024-01-07	WSH 4 - 3 LAK	WSH	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.41
1	LAK	10	0	0.19
2	WSH	9	0	0.64
2	LAK	11	0	0.70
3	WSH	10	1	0.97
3	LAK	16	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1