Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 59.1%

WPG: 40.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.35

WPG: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	27	22	5	81.5%	4.23	7	-0.77
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	25	23	2	92.0%	2.65	1	0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.85
1	WPG	13	0	0.53
2	TOR	20	0	1.05
2	WPG	8	1	0.52
3	TOR	14	0	0.75
3	WPG	14	6	3.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8