Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 55.5%

WPG: 44.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.33

WPG: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • TOR at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.85
1	WPG	13	0	0.53
2	TOR	20	0	1.05
2	WPG	8	1	0.52
3	TOR	14	0	0.75
3	WPG	14	6	3.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0