St. Louis Blues at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 51.3%

STL: 48.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.30

STL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	21	17	4	81.0%	3.99	3	-0.01
STL	Jordan Binnington	19	19	0	100.0%	1.33	0	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DET at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	STL 2 - 5 DET	DET	STL
2025-10-25	DET 6 - 4 STL	DET	DET
2025-04-01	STL 2 - 1 DET	STL	STL
2024-12-23	DET 0 - 4 STL	STL	DET
2024-02-24	DET 6 - 1 STL	DET	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	5	0	0.15
1	STL	13	1	1.26
2	DET	10	0	0.49
2	STL	14	1	1.36
3	DET	11	0	0.70
3	STL	6	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0