Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 0 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 48.0%

TBL: 52.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.28

TBL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 39%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	25	4	86.2%	3.20	2	-0.80
TBL	Jonas Johansson	36	36	0	100.0%	3.02	0	3.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	17	0	0.77
1	TBL	20	1	1.43
2	FLA	23	0	1.24
2	TBL	16	0	0.63
3	FLA	19	0	1.01
3	TBL	11	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 0 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3