Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-12-23 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 48.3%
PHI: 51.7%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.77
PHI: 2.81
Total Goals
Median: 7.7
Over 5.5: 77%
Over 6.5: 65%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | PIT | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.901 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PIT at home vs PHI: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | PIT 3 - 4 PHI | PHI | PIT |
| 2026-01-15 | PIT 6 - 3 PHI | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-12-01 | PHI 1 - 5 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-10-28 | PHI 3 - 2 PIT | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-02-27 | PIT 5 - 4 PHI | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:29 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 06:12 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 11:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 16:15 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 17:44 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 04:29 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 13:06 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:48 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 17:30 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:48 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.8 - 2.8
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