Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 47.8%

MTL: 52.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.21

MTL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	31	27	4	87.1%	3.54	2	-0.46
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	32	27	5	84.4%	3.97	2	-1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • CBJ at home vs MTL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	MTL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-26	MTL 2 - 1 CBJ	MTL	CBJ
2025-11-17	CBJ 4 - 3 MTL	CBJ	CBJ
2024-12-23	CBJ 5 - 4 MTL	CBJ	MTL
2024-11-27	CBJ 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	17	1	2.07
1	MTL	13	0	0.52
2	CBJ	9	1	0.78
2	MTL	18	1	1.23
3	CBJ	18	0	1.12
3	MTL	19	1	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2