Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 52.2%

DAL: 47.8%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.06

DAL: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	26	3	89.7%	3.60	2	0.60
DAL	Casey DeSmith	26	24	2	92.3%	2.87	4	0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • UTA at home vs DAL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	DAL
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	16	3	1.40
1	DAL	12	0	0.70
2	UTA	7	1	0.60
2	DAL	25	1	2.01
3	UTA	15	0	0.87
3	DAL	9	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8