Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

BUF: 69.5%

CHI: 30.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.74

CHI: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 42%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	17	15	2	88.2%	1.67	0	-0.33
CHI	Petr Mrazek	35	29	6	82.9%	3.73	2	-2.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • BUF at home vs CHI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	CHI 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-21	BUF 9 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-27	BUF 6 - 2 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-10-19	CHI 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-18	BUF 3 - 0 CHI	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	0	1.20
1	CHI	7	0	0.42
2	BUF	15	1	1.16
2	CHI	15	0	0.71
3	BUF	19	1	1.38
3	CHI	10	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7