Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DET: 42.8%

TOR: 57.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.92

TOR: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	19	1	1.27
1	TOR	14	2	1.70
2	DET	11	0	0.42
2	TOR	12	1	1.09
3	DET	14	1	1.20
3	TOR	5	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4