Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-12-27 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

SJS: 35.6%

VGK: 64.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.75

VGK: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	36	30	6	83.3%	5.07	3	-0.93
VGK	Adin Hill	25	22	3	88.0%	2.53	2	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • SJS at home vs VGK: 0-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.52
1	VGK	19	0	1.29
2	SJS	18	2	1.61
2	VGK	12	1	1.09
3	SJS	10	0	0.40
3	VGK	20	2	2.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5