Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 37.4%

WSH: 62.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.03

WSH: 4.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	32	27	5	84.4%	3.47	1	-1.53
WSH	Logan Thompson	37	35	2	94.6%	3.59	2	1.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	1.14
1	WSH	22	0	0.76
2	TOR	22	1	1.55
2	WSH	16	0	0.95
3	TOR	16	0	0.89
3	WSH	12	1	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 4.1