New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TBL: 74.7%

NYR: 25.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.06

NYR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	1.02
1	NYR	23	0	1.41
2	TBL	15	1	1.14
2	NYR	12	0	0.63
3	TBL	10	0	0.73
3	NYR	25	0	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 4.1 - 2.8