Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 39.5%

OTT: 60.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.46

OTT: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 39%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	33	2	94.3%	2.88	0	0.88
OTT	Mads Sogaard	23	19	4	82.6%	4.17	9	0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	OTT
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	OTT
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	2	0.79
1	OTT	15	0	0.73
2	WPG	11	1	1.10
2	OTT	14	0	0.91
3	WPG	14	6	2.29
3	OTT	24	0	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0