Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYI: 59.6%

PIT: 40.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.57

PIT: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	22	3	88.0%	2.81	2	-0.19
PIT	Tristan Jarry	35	29	6	82.9%	5.96	7	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs PIT: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	NYI
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	2	1.62
1	PIT	13	1	1.12
2	NYI	22	2	2.42
2	PIT	15	1	1.31
3	NYI	12	3	1.92
3	PIT	9	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8