Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

SJS: 33.3%

CGY: 66.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.04

CGY: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	33	30	3	90.9%	4.97	4	1.97
CGY	Dustin Wolf	22	21	1	95.5%	1.92	0	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SJS at home vs CGY: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	10	0	0.42
1	CGY	28	1	1.57
2	SJS	12	0	0.82
2	CGY	16	1	1.90
3	SJS	14	0	0.68
3	CGY	12	2	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.0 - 3.2