Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 68.8%

MTL: 31.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.95

MTL: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	37	32	5	86.5%	4.03	2	-0.97
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	23	21	2	91.3%	2.70	2	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.92
1	MTL	13	0	1.00
2	TBL	10	2	1.26
2	MTL	21	0	1.39
3	TBL	8	0	0.52
3	MTL	16	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.7