Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-12-29 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.3%
MTL: 35.7%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.41
MTL: 2.71
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | TBL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.786 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TBL at home vs MTL: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | TBL 5 - 4 MTL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-09 | MTL 1 - 6 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-02-09 | MTL 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-01-21 | MTL 3 - 2 TBL | MTL | MTL |
| 2024-12-29 | TBL 2 - 5 MTL | MTL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:07 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:34 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:28 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:54 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 12:32 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:08 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.4 - 2.7