Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

WSH: 55.7%

BOS: 44.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.16

BOS: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	27	26	1	96.3%	3.51	4	2.51
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	27	24	3	88.9%	4.53	5	1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs BOS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	1.41
1	BOS	17	2	1.30
2	WSH	14	2	1.26
2	BOS	15	0	0.88
3	WSH	16	2	1.86
3	BOS	21	2	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9