New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 55.8%

NYI: 44.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.84

NYI: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.60
1	NYI	12	0	0.43
2	TOR	19	2	1.44
2	NYI	18	1	1.56
3	TOR	9	2	1.11
3	NYI	15	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0