Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-12-31 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 55.9%
MTL: 44.1%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.51
MTL: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 7.6
Over 5.5: 79%
Over 6.5: 65%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | VGK | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.941 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | MTL 3 - 2 VGK | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-28 | VGK 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-12-31 | VGK 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-11-23 | MTL 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2023-11-16 | MTL 5 - 6 VGK | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:23 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 19:48 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 17:27 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 07:58 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 10:09 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.5 - 3.1
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