Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 61.3%

MTL: 38.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.59

MTL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	22	19	3	86.4%	2.24	1	-0.76
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	27	2	93.1%	2.56	2	0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	1	0.72
1	MTL	15	0	0.74
2	VGK	16	0	1.17
2	MTL	12	0	0.85
3	VGK	17	1	0.66
3	MTL	11	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0