Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

DET: 57.5%

PIT: 42.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.20

PIT: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	25	23	2	92.0%	2.85	1	0.85
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	25	21	4	84.0%	4.30	4	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.97
1	PIT	8	0	0.44
2	DET	15	2	1.37
2	PIT	13	0	0.98
3	DET	10	2	1.96
3	PIT	15	1	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1