Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 53.0%

CAR: 47.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.37

CAR: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	40	37	3	92.5%	3.24	2	0.24
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	26	25	1	96.2%	3.18	1	2.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • FLA at home vs CAR: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	CAR 0 - 1 FLA	FLA	CAR
2026-01-16	CAR 9 - 1 FLA	CAR	CAR
2025-12-23	CAR 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR
2025-12-19	FLA 4 - 3 CAR	FLA	CAR
2025-05-28	CAR 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	10	0	0.71
1	CAR	21	1	1.09
2	FLA	15	0	1.06
2	CAR	20	0	0.82
3	FLA	22	1	1.41
3	CAR	9	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0