Boston Bruins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 49.6%

BOS: 50.4%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.23

BOS: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	33	32	1	97.0%	2.29	0	1.29
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	27	25	2	92.6%	2.48	3	0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • NYR at home vs BOS: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	BOS 3 - 0 NYR	BOS	NYR
2026-01-26	NYR 4 - 3 BOS	NYR	BOS
2026-01-10	BOS 10 - 2 NYR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-28	BOS 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-05	NYR 3 - 2 BOS	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	1	1.12
1	BOS	17	0	0.83
2	NYR	15	2	1.02
2	BOS	16	0	0.80
3	NYR	9	0	0.34
3	BOS	19	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1