Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 58.4%

TOR: 41.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.46

TOR: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	29	2	93.5%	3.10	2	1.10
TOR	Joseph Woll	33	32	1	97.0%	3.34	0	2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	1.03
1	TOR	17	0	0.88
2	NYI	18	0	1.27
2	TOR	18	1	1.41
3	NYI	20	0	1.04
3	TOR	14	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2