Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 55.2%

TOR: 44.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.25

TOR: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	1.03
1	TOR	17	0	0.88
2	NYI	18	0	1.27
2	TOR	18	1	1.41
3	NYI	20	0	1.04
3	TOR	14	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0