Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-01-02 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 55.6%
TOR: 44.4%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.21
TOR: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | NYI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.907 | 0.881 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs TOR: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | NYI 5 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-03-17 | TOR 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:15 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:01 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 3.3
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