Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 49.5%

OTT: 50.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.27

OTT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	OTT
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	2	1.34
1	OTT	11	0	0.41
2	DAL	13	2	0.71
2	OTT	13	0	0.60
3	DAL	16	5	2.29
3	OTT	5	1	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2