Utah Hockey Club at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

CGY: 46.8%

UTA: 53.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.91

UTA: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	26	21	5	80.8%	3.84	2	-1.16
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	23	3	88.5%	1.64	1	-1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CGY at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	CGY 4 - 1 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-12-06	CGY 2 - 0 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-10-15	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-04-01	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-01-02	CGY 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	1	0.62
1	UTA	11	0	0.70
2	CGY	10	0	0.62
2	UTA	9	0	0.62
3	CGY	10	0	0.40
3	UTA	15	2	2.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4