Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

VGK: 56.6%

PHI: 43.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.48

PHI: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	25	23	2	92.0%	3.28	3	1.28
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	27	22	5	81.5%	3.65	5	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	3	1.23
1	PHI	15	1	0.86
2	VGK	16	1	0.98
2	PHI	19	1	1.18
3	VGK	17	1	1.44
3	PHI	12	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9