Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

VGK: 54.8%

PHI: 45.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.34

PHI: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	3	1.23
1	PHI	15	1	0.86
2	VGK	16	1	0.98
2	PHI	19	1	1.18
3	VGK	17	1	1.44
3	PHI	12	1	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9