Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 58.5%

VAN: 41.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.27

VAN: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 48%

Over 6.5: 33%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	24	20	4	83.3%	3.74	3	-0.26
VAN	Thatcher Demko	28	25	3	89.3%	2.94	2	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • SEA at home vs VAN: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VAN 2 - 5 SEA	SEA	VAN
2026-02-28	SEA 5 - 1 VAN	SEA	SEA
2026-01-02	VAN 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	VAN
2025-12-29	SEA 2 - 3 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-02	VAN 0 - 5 SEA	SEA	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	16	1	1.01
1	VAN	12	1	0.99
2	SEA	14	1	0.82
2	VAN	20	1	1.35
3	SEA	13	0	0.65
3	VAN	10	0	0.43
4	SEA	3	0	0.31
4	VAN	2	0	0.06
5	SEA	3	0	0.15
5	VAN	2	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2