Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 38.0%

TBL: 62.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.72

TBL: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	14	0	0.66
1	TBL	11	1	0.88
2	SJS	15	1	1.11
2	TBL	11	0	0.76
3	SJS	6	0	0.45
3	TBL	14	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5