Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-01-03 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 49.1%

PIT: 50.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.54

PIT: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	33	31	2	93.9%	4.43	2	2.43
PIT	Tristan Jarry	36	32	4	88.9%	5.55	5	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • FLA at home vs PIT: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	2	1.08
1	PIT	21	1	1.60
2	FLA	24	1	1.37
2	PIT	11	0	0.60
3	FLA	17	0	1.01
3	PIT	16	1	1.70
4	FLA	6	0	0.48
4	PIT	4	0	0.40
5	FLA	3	2	1.60
5	PIT	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8